Irish housing approvals jump 60%—
will supply follow?

01 / APPROVALS

Permissions reached
a four-year high.

Central Statistics Office figures published on 17 September show that 11,912 dwelling units received planning permission during April, May and June 2026. This was up from 7,447 units in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

House approvals increased by 33% annually, while apartment approvals rose by 107%. The increase followed a 1% annual decline in the first quarter. Q2 was the strongest quarter since 13,450 units were approved in Q4 2021.

One-off house approvals increased more moderately, rising by 6.2% from 1,157 to 1,229 units.

02 / GEOGRAPHY

Dublin and Cork drove
the quarterly increase.

Across Dublin’s four local authorities, approvals increased by 78.5% to 3,241 dwellings. Dublin apartment approvals rose by 95.6% to 2,412, while house approvals increased by 42.2% to 829.

Cork recorded 3,234 approved units, almost matching Dublin’s total. Its apartment approvals increased by 302%, from 441 to 1,775 units, while house approvals rose by 92.7% to 1,459.

Together, Dublin and Cork accounted for approximately 54% of all dwellings approved nationally during the quarter. This indicates a significant replenishment of the potential pipeline, particularly for higher-density urban development. It does not establish when, or whether, those properties will be built.

03 / DELIVERY

The distance from permission
to completion is growing.

The Central Bank of Ireland’s September Quarterly Bulletin examined project-level information across the planning, commencement and completion stages. Among housing units approved between 2017 and 2020, approximately one-quarter did not begin construction during the following five years.

For homes completed so far in 2026, the average period from the original planning application to completion was four years—twice the duration recorded around a decade earlier.

The delay has not arisen solely within the formal planning decision process. The Central Bank found that the construction phase itself now takes approximately one year longer, with typical on-site durations ranging from 18 to 25 months. Labour availability, infrastructure, development finance, construction capacity and project viability can all affect whether an approved scheme progresses.

Planning permission measures potential supply. Construction and completion determine when that potential becomes usable housing.— Zanoris Research

The 11,912 approvals and the homes completed during the same quarter do not represent the same projects and should not be used to calculate a quarterly conversion rate. Current completions predominantly originated from decisions made several years earlier. Many projects approved in Q2 2026 may not reach the market until 2028, 2029 or later.

04 / COMPLETIONS

Available supply remains
uneven.

Ireland completed 8,823 new dwellings during Q2 2026, according to the CSO. This was 3.6% fewer than during the same period in 2025.

Apartment completions declined by 12.2% to 2,658, even as apartment planning approvals more than doubled. Scheme-house completions increased by 2% to 4,738, while single-dwelling completions fell by 3.7% to 1,427.

Dublin accounted for 36% of all completions, but its output was 16.4% lower than a year earlier. Meanwhile, 75.5% of all apartments completed nationally were located in Dublin.

The contrasting figures are not contradictory. Planning approvals are an early-stage measure, while completions represent the end of a multi-year process. They illustrate why the supply outlook can improve on paper without immediately increasing the number of homes available.

Approximately 16,000 dwellings commenced construction during the first half of 2026. Commencement figures also require care because the expiry of development levy and water-connection waivers created a large policy-driven surge in 2024, followed by much lower levels in 2025 and 2026.

05 / OUTLOOK

Supply is forecast to grow—
but conditionally.

The Central Bank expects Irish housing completions to reach 39,500 units in 2026, 41,000 in 2027 and 45,000 in 2028. Each projection was revised slightly lower in its September Quarterly Bulletin and depends on improvements in enabling infrastructure and construction productivity.

The Bank noted that more than 100,000 commencements have been recorded since 2024. Nevertheless, longer building times and infrastructure uncertainty mean some approved or commenced developments may not be completed within the forecast period.

The 2027 outlook is also affected by lower commencement activity during 2025 and 2026. Because homes delivered in 2027 will largely come from projects already in the pipeline, one strong quarter of approvals cannot fully compensate for earlier weakness.

Supply is expected to increase, but its timing and composition remain uncertain. Financing conditions add another variable; our analysis of the ECB rate increase and Irish property examines how borrowing costs affect viability and investor cash flow.

06 / APARTMENTS

Urban supply depends
on complex projects.

Apartments accounted for 47% of units approved in Q2, but only 30% of completed dwellings. This does not prove that individual apartment projects are less likely to proceed. It does underline their importance to future supply and the greater complexity often associated with higher-density schemes.

Apartment developments may require substantial upfront capital, infrastructure capacity, longer construction programmes and confidence that completed units can be sold or rented at economically viable prices.

The sharp increases in Dublin and Cork approvals are encouraging indicators for urban housing supply. Their ultimate impact depends on whether projects move from permission to financing, commencement and completion.

07 / INVESTOR RESPONSE

What this means for
investors and landlords.

1. 01

   Treat permissions as pipeline evidence, not available supply. Approval can improve a location’s medium-term outlook but does not create an immediately lettable or purchasable home.

2. 02

   Analyse development locally. Dublin and Cork dominated the increase. National figures conceal different pipelines across counties, towns and neighbourhoods.

3. 03

   Monitor the type of supply. Apartments, scheme houses and one-off dwellings serve different segments and affect local rents, sale prices and tenant demand differently.

4. 04

   Allow for future competition. New development may support population, services and liquidity, but it can also change achievable rent and resale assumptions.

5. 05

   Do not rely on continued scarcity. An investment should remain resilient if local supply improves. Net income, financing, condition and operating costs are stronger foundations than a permanent-shortage assumption.

08 / THE ZANORIS VIEW

A better pipeline—
not yet a supply transformation.

The 60% increase in permissions is a genuinely positive leading indicator, particularly because much of the growth came from apartment projects in Ireland’s largest urban markets. It is not yet evidence of a supply transformation.

The more consequential finding may be the Central Bank’s estimate that the planning-to-completion journey now averages four years and that roughly one-quarter of approved units historically did not commence within five years.

For property analysis, the pipeline should be evaluated in stages. Permission, commencement, active construction and completion each provide a different level of confidence. Counting every approved unit as future supply can overstate the likely effect on a local market. Conversely, dismissing approvals because homes are not delivered immediately would overlook a meaningful change in medium-term development potential.

In our view, Ireland’s pipeline is improving, but execution will determine whether it relieves pressure on purchasers and tenants. Infrastructure delivery, labour capacity, project finance and commercial viability deserve as much attention as the headline number of permissions granted.

For owners and market entrants assessing how future supply could affect a particular location, Zanoris welcomes a measured conversation about the evidence, operating assumptions and long-term property strategy.