Irish prices rise—
as existing home sales fall.

01 / THE JULY FIGURES

Growth continues—
but at uneven speeds.

The national Residential Property Price Index increased by 5.5% annually in July 2026, slightly below the 5.6% recorded in June. This was the slowest annual increase since January 2024.

Dublin residential prices increased by 4.4%, while prices outside Dublin rose by 6.4%. Nationally, house prices increased by 5.2% and apartment prices by 7.5%. Apartments outside Dublin recorded annual growth of 9.2%.

Regional house-price growth ranged from 11.0% in the Border region to 4.4% in the Mid-West. The median price paid for a dwelling during the 12 months to July was €399,999, ranging from €684,411 in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown to €200,000 in Longford.

These figures describe different things. The RPPI is designed to measure price changes after adjusting for the mix and characteristics of properties sold. The median is simply the midpoint of recorded transaction prices.

The CSO specifically cautions that median or average prices should not be used to measure market price movements because the composition of properties sold changes over time.

02 / TRANSACTION MIX

New homes are carrying—
transaction growth.

A total of 4,769 household dwelling purchases were filed with Revenue in July 2026, only 1.2% more than the 4,712 filed in July 2025.

New dwellings represented 28.3% of household purchases in July 2026. Based on the CSO’s published totals and annual changes, Zanoris calculates that their share was approximately 24.3% one year earlier.

The value of purchases followed a similar pattern. Existing-home transaction value declined by 0.3% annually to €1.51 billion, while the value of new-home purchases increased by 20.8% to €665.3 million.

Dividing reported value by transaction numbers produces an indicative average of approximately €442,000 for existing dwellings and €492,000 for new dwellings. These are not like-for-like valuations: the homes may differ significantly in size, location, energy performance and specification. They nonetheless illustrate how a growing new-build share can influence the overall value of market activity.

03 / THE EUROPEAN CONTEXT

Ireland is part of—
a wider divergence.

Eurostat’s second-quarter data show that house prices increased by 4.7% across the European Union and by 4.0% in the euro area compared with the same quarter of 2025.

Ireland recorded annual price growth of 6.0% in the second quarter, above both averages. However, Eurostat’s separate house-sales release found that transaction numbers declined in most reporting EU countries during the quarter, including Ireland.

Across the available sample, the number of homes transacted fell in nine countries and increased in six. Eurostat does not publish a complete EU transaction aggregate because house-sales data are supplied voluntarily and coverage is incomplete.

This limitation matters. The data do not establish a uniform European downturn, nor do they prove that Ireland’s market is becoming illiquid. They show that rising prices can coexist with fewer completed purchases—and that prices alone provide an incomplete picture of market strength.

04 / PRICE AND LIQUIDITY

Why prices can rise—
when sales weaken.

Several mechanisms can produce this combination.

Restricted supply may prevent prices from falling even when fewer buyers complete transactions. Owners who do not need to sell may withdraw a property instead of accepting a lower offer.

The mix of transactions can also change. If more new, energy-efficient or higher-specification properties are sold, total transaction value may rise even while activity in the older housing stock weakens.

Financing conditions can reduce the number of qualified purchasers without immediately reducing agreed prices. Buyers with sufficient deposits and borrowing capacity continue competing for limited stock, while more financially constrained households remain outside the completed-sales data.

Finally, a price index measures the properties that sold. It does not directly measure the properties that failed to sell, were withdrawn or remained listed for an extended period.

A market supported by many comparable sales generally provides more reliable valuation evidence and greater exit flexibility than one supported by a small number of completed transactions.

05 / PRACTICAL METHOD

A simple liquidity—
stress test.

Consider a purely illustrative property purchased for €400,000.

If its value increased by 5.5%, matching the July national RPPI movement, its theoretical value after one year would be €422,000. That figure is not a forecast; an individual property may perform very differently from the national index.

Now assume the owner needs to sell quickly and accepts 5% less than that theoretical value because buyer demand for the specific asset is limited:

Despite the positive headline price movement, the owner would receive less than the original purchase price before accounting for mortgage interest, taxation, maintenance or acquisition costs.

The assumptions are deliberately simplified. The purpose is not to predict a discount or selling cost, but to demonstrate why unrealised appreciation and an executable exit are different concepts.

06 / INVESTOR RESPONSE

What this means for—
investors and landlords.

1. 01

   Separate new and existing supply. New-build activity can support the headline market while an older property competes in a weaker resale segment.

2. 02

   Use recent local comparables. National and regional indices cannot establish the likely sale price of an individual asset.

3. 03

   Measure transaction depth. Consider how many genuinely comparable properties have sold—not merely how many are advertised.

4. 04

   Stress-test the exit price. Model the investment at the expected value and at discounts of 5% and 10%, including selling and financing costs.

5. 05

   Assess the likely buyer pool. Property condition, BER rating, location, price band and mortgage eligibility can expand or restrict future demand.

6. 06

   Avoid treating appreciation as cash flow. Rising indexed values do not pay operating expenses and cannot be realised without a transaction.

07 / THE ZANORIS VIEW

A selective market—
not a uniform one.

The latest figures describe a selective market rather than a uniformly strong or weak one.

Ireland’s supply constraints continue to support prices, while the rise in new-home transactions shows that buyers are still active where suitable stock and financing are available. At the same time, the decline in existing-home purchases suggests that liquidity should not be assumed simply because the national index is rising.

For long-term owners with resilient cash flow, short-term transaction weakness may have limited significance. For investors dependent on refinancing, resale or a short holding period, it can materially change the risk profile.

In our view, a sound property case should answer three separate questions: what the asset could earn, what it may be worth, and how readily that value could be realised. None should be used as a substitute for the others.

The latest three months of the CSO price series remain provisional because stamp-duty returns may be filed with a delay. Eurostat’s transaction comparison also covers only participating countries. These figures should therefore inform scenario analysis, not support confident predictions about the next phase of the market.

For investors, property owners and market entrants examining both the income and exit case of an opportunity, Zanoris welcomes a measured conversation about asset selection, liquidity and long-term property strategy.